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01.03.20 21:48
Open lecture "Analysis of the factors that determine new generation of river and river-sea vessels" at the Admiral Makarov State University



On February, 28, 2020 open lecture of the general director of the Marine Engineering Bureau, the professor, Dr.Sci.Tech. Gennady Egorov has taken place in Saint-Petersburg at the Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping. The lecture's theme was " Analysis of the factors that determine new generation of river and river-sea vessels".
 
Lecture was carried out by educational learning-methodical association of the speciality "Technical equipment and technologies of Shipbuilding and water transport".
 
Lecture was broadcast in the internet-mode to some organizations, including: the Ushakov State Maritime University (Novorossisk), the Nevelskoy the State Maritime University (Vladivostok), the Astrakhan State Technical University, the Volga State University of Water Transport, the Moscow State Academy of Water Transport, the Siberian State University of Water Transport (totally more than 20 organizations have been connected to).
 

The basic theses of the lecture:
 

1. A primary factor that determines parameters of cargo vessels water transport is certainly the cargo base. Cargo traffics determine amount and type of required vessels
 
Today the Russian water transport provides year transportation of approximately 120 million tons of cargoes, including 30-35 million tons of export-import and 18-20 million tons of "northern" delivery. For comparison, in 1989 the transportation amount was 580 million tons.
 
For example, in 2019 the transportation amount of one of the leading shipping Russian companies, namely North-Western Shipping Company was kept as for analogue period 2018 and was of 5 million tons. The total transportation amount included: 1.4 million tons (about 30%) of grain, 1 million tons (more than 20%) ferrous metals, 0.6 million tons (more than 12%) chemical and mineral fertilizers, 0.42 million tons (8.4%) timber, 0.45 million tons (9%) coal, 0.35 million tons (7%) non-ferrous metals.
 
Transportations amount for other cargoes (mixed fodder, iron and manganese ore, building cargoes, scrap metal, clay and aluminium silicate, chemical cargoes) by results of the last year is of 0.78 million tons.
 
The most part of transportation (more than 3.7 million tons or 74.4%) has made export cargoes that have kept amount at 2018 level. The main export nomenclature included: grain, timber, black and non-ferrous metals, coal, chemical and mineral fertilizers. Thus growth was observed for some cargoes, namely transportation amount of nonferrous metals has grown almost in 2.5 times up to 0.23 million tons due to increase of voyages from Saint-Petersburg port and Russian southern ports; also amount of ferrous metals has grown up to 0.88 million tons (+14 %) due to transportations of slabs from Novorossisk port.
 
A significant volatility of cargo base is a problem. The following situation is a vivid example: sharp reduction of oil products submission for river transportation, e.g. 13.3 million tons in 2013, 6.8 million tons in 2015 and 6.5 million tons in 2018. And all this have occurred when discarding of old tankers was extremely insignificant with simultaneously active construction of new tankers. In result the order of new tankers was forced to stop (in despite of mean age 43 years for Volgoneft type vessels in operation).
 

2. Travelling conditions are the nest factor
 
Russian water transport, that includes river-sea and restricted marine navigation vessels strongly differ from world fleet due to special way conditions.
 
As a matter of fact, vessels that are interested to Russian customers, correspond to character dimensions of internal water ways (e.g. Volgo-Dpon Max vessels, namely tankers of RST25, RST27, RST27M prjs. and dry-cargo vessels of RSD49, RSD59, RSD62 prjs., combined vessels of RST54 prj.) or to small water depth of Azov or Caspian ports (RSD32M prj.).
 
The paradox is in that at open marine market these vessels have no chance (they cannot be competitive with vessels of essentially greater size, e.g. Handysize, Panamax, Suezmax, Capesize ones) due to dimensions effect (5-7 thousand tons against 50-300 thousand tons of cargo). But also, on the contrary, at the world market there are no marine vessels which could "replace" river-sea ones.
 
For information, river vessels from Europe too cannot be competitive at the Russian water market, again due to because of dimensions effect (typical carrying capacity of the European river-sea vessel is 1700-2500 t against 5000-7000 t for Russian vessels), and European c restricted marine navigation vessels have deadweight about 4500 t at draught of 5-6 m (limit for our Azov and Caspian ports is of 4.5 m).
 
This is feature for fleet of the majority of the post-Soviet companies.
 

3. Volgo-Don Max vessels were and are again the most required ones
 
These vessels satisfy the dimensions of Volga-Don Shipping Canal (VDSC) and intended for replacement of popular Soviet series of Volgoneft and Volgo-Don vessels, i.e. they are universal for work through the European part of Russian internal waterways due to their main particulars. For information, the record (since 1983) cargo amount of 12.7 million tons was transported through VDSC in 2013; mainly there were high marginal export cargoes (petroleum products, grain, Sulphur, etc.).
 
4. Cargoes are transported by both "old" fleet and newly constructed vessels
 

The existing cargo fleet has been constructed from the end of 1950th till 2000 under projects of the "Soviet" type. Formerly they were quite good and reliable vessels, especially they are in operation for so many years already; but thus they are the main competitors of the new fleet, because have compensated their cost long ago.
 
4.1. Existing tankers: 479 ones were constructed, 143 discarded (mean discarding age 33.7), 260 actually in operation (mean age 38.9). The forecast of the Bureau is 174 vessels in 2025, 43 ones in 2030. For the beginning of 2020, there are 233 new tankers constructed after 2000, 12 more ones are under construction now. So, about 47% of today's tanker fleet are already new vessels.
 
4.2. Existing dry-cargo vessels: 1727 ones were constructed, 738 (mean discarding age 36.1), 855 actually in operation (mean age 39.3). The forecast of the Bureau is 546 vessels in 2025, 201 ones in 2030. For the beginning of 2020, there are 221 new dry-cargo vessels constructed after 2000, 59 more ones are under construction now. So, about only 21% of today's dry-cargo fleet are already new vessels.
 
4.3. As a matter of fact, the above said and that recycling of dry-cargo vessels was of faster rates than building of new ones and lack of fleet for grain export from the and have led to sharp growth of orders for new dry-cargo vessels.
 
However there are many important nuances for this problem.
 
Firstly, discarding is carried out mainly for vessels of 2-3 thousand tons of carrying capacity, not for Volgo-Don Max ones. But construction is carried out just for Volgo-Don Max ones; their carrying capacity exceeds same value of vessels they change by 2-3 times at draughts 3.60-4.20 m.
 
Secondly, rates for transportations of dry high marginal cargoes are very much changeable (especially if to investigate enough long period). It is not casual that in 2010-2016 dry-cargo vessels were constructed not so actively as tankers, because rates did not allow.
 
Therefore rates of new vessels construction should be coordinated with real cargo base and actual discarding of old vessels-competitors.
 

5. Measures of the state support
 
The domestic water transport included 48000 vessels of 14.9 years mean age in 1980, 44654 vessels of 18.9 years mean age in 1990 as a "perestroika" result, 32334 vessels of 24.5 years mean age in 2000, 24291 vessels of 33.3 years mean age for the 1st of January 2019. Actually for 40 years vessels number has decreased twice; also mean age has grown practically twice. Thus vessels/ discarding (in 2000th) reached up to 800-1000 vessels yearly.
 
However prompt fleet degradation has been stopped due to state support measures. Already for 7 years number of vessels DOES NOT DECREASE also mean age DOES NOT GROW: 22440 vessels and 33.3 years in 2012; 22462 vessels and 33.27 years in 2013, 22678 vessels and 33.26 years in 2014, 23500 vessels and 32.9 years in 2015, 24005 vessels and 33.1 years in 2015, 24909 vessels and 33.1 years in 2017.
 
In general, such quite positive phenomenon takes places due to new vessels' construction. In XXI century about 3 thousand courts and boats of all types were delivered; mainly from domestic factories, including that were registered in State Inspection of the Small-Sized Vessels earlier. On the average 180-200 vessels were constructed annually.
 
It's clear, that significant vessels have been constructed less. For the beginning of 2020, for 19 years of the new century, companies working on the "post-Soviet" cargo base, received 454 river, river-sea or restricted marine cargo self-propelled vessels. So fleet is being under construction, and under already new projects that have, in many respects, no analogues in the world.
 

6. The main trouble water transport industry of Russia is the low-water problem which leads to insufficient water depths in turn
 
The greatest cargo flow decreasing at RF European inland waterways was met at the Volgo-Balt direction at 40 km part from Gorodetsk locks Nos. 15-16 till Balakhna; only vessels with draught 2.5 m and less were able to sail through there. One may take into consideration that ensured vessel's draught for United High-depth System of Russia is 3.6 m.
 
The second bottleneck is low-water of Nizhniy Don where water depths decreased down to 2.90 m.
 
One may understand that underloading of Volga-Don Max tanker for 60 cm (i.e. 3.00 m instead of 3.60 m) means cargo capacity loss of 1150-1370 t. For dry-cargo vessels of same type the cargo capacity loss is 1180-1320 t.
 
From dropping of actual tankers' loadings the decrease of submission of petroleum products for river transportation began; factories continue to work so these cargoes were transferred to rail way.
 
For elimination of "narrow" places, building of the Nizhny Novgorod low pressure node is highly required; this facility has to solve Gorodetsk problem. Also the low pressure node on the Don River at the Bagayevskiy District is required.
 

7. Actually, the main cargoes which are transported by water transport are not grain and petroleum products but cheaper mineral-building ones
 
As a rule, such voyages are carried out by pusher trains.
 
In general the role of barges and pusher tug-boats is significant in the real amount of river transportations. However renewing of this big segment of fleet is extremely insignificant.
 

8. But the basic problem in barge-tugboats trains should be seen in pusher tugboats
 
From earlier constructed 3185 pusher tugboats 824 were discarded (mean discarding age 27.2 years), 1895 ones are in operation (mean age 40.9 years). The forecast of the Bureau is: 1277 pusher tugboats in 2025, 625 ones in 2030. For the end of 2020 there are only 55 pusher tug-boats constricted after 2000. It's too little for existent non-self-propelled fleet.
 
So, only 4% of today's pusher tug-boats are new vessels.
 
Same time a flat barge that transports 2700 t of the mineral-building cargoes and that is pushed by 450 b.h.p. pusher-tugboat, replaces railway train that consist of 45 wagons and 2000 b.h.p. diesel locomotive or 104 dump tracks of 360 b.h.p. each.
 
Economy of fuel and corresponding reduction of emissions to the atmosphere during water transportation in comparison with railway and especially car transportations is very significant.
 

9. These days river cruise vessels transport about 400 thousand tourists through Russian internal waterways, about 100 thousand of them are foreigners
 
But by 2030 only 200 thousand tourists will be able to use such service; same time some expert estimations show that potentially market amount will make by then up to 1.0 million tourists.
 
By 2020 from 254 constructed in the Soviet time river cruise passenger vessels 98 (38.6%) have been discarded. 32 vessels (12.6%) of 57.7 years mean age were out of operation.Formally 124 vessels (48.8%) of 45.2 years mean age are in operation, 4 ones from them have foreign flag.
 
Mean age of recycling is 47.1 years.
 
By 2025 there will be approximately 83 cruise vessels in operation, including new ones; and by 2030 there will be approximately 51 ones.
 
For on short-term prospect it's recommended to modernize existing fleet (first of all, projects 301, 302, Q-040, Q-056, Q-065, 92-016) in accordance with modern ecological requirements and market requirements (engines replacement, improvement of habitability conditions, increasing of automation level for processes onboard, etc.). For middle-term prospect it's recommended to build new fleet, including variants with usage of elements of donor vessels.
 
Set of new vessels includes: 3 "wheel" cruise passenger vessels of PKS-180 prj. of "Sura" type, 1 conversion vessel of 588 / REGK.002 prj. of "Rus Velikaya" type (6 years old), 1 conversion vessel of PV08 prj. of "Alexandr Geen" type (7 years old) and also high comfortable PV09 vessel of "Shtandart" type (2 years old).
 
New cruise passenger vessels under construction are as follows: PKS-180 "wheel" ones, PV300 "Mustay Karim" (is launched, putting in operation is planned for 2020), PV300VD "Petr Velikiy" (is launched, putting in operation is planned for 2021). New concepts have quite nice draughts: 1.80 m for PV09, 3.20 m for PV300VD, 3.00 m for PV300; also that their "five-stars" levels are claimed both foreign and the Russian tourists.
 
One may remember that offered for construction cruise fleet includes not only vessels at building stage (PV300VD, PV300), but also whole "line-up" of vessels: from PV500 vessels for line Moscow - Saint Petersburg - Astrakhan for 500 passengers and up to vessels (on a basis of "wheel" ones and PV09) for 100-150 passengers that can work through new routes (e.g. Saint Petersburg - Velikiy Novgorod, Moscow - Velikiy Novgorod, "The Gold Ring ", the Oka River, Moscow, Saint Petersburg - Solovky, Ladoga - Saint-Petersburg - Saimaa). Let's be hopes, that very soon many water tourists can see not only Balaam and Mandrogy, but also Old Ladoga, Konstantinovo, Velikiy Novgorod.