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On April 1, 2021 General Director of Marine Engineering Bureau, professor, doctor of technical sciences Gennady Egorov made a speech at the plenary session of VIII International conference "Russian shipbuilding 2021" with his report "Prospects and opportunities of passenger shipbuilding. Forecast of the demand for new vessels".
 

Abstracts of the report
 
The results of passenger shipbuilding
 
The results of 2020 are a vivid example of the multifaceted revival of passenger shipbuilding (cruise ships, marine passenger ships for scheduled lines, river passenger ships for scheduled lines, environmentally friendly recreational and passenger ships, hydrofoils, hovercraft, houseboats, vessels with alternative propulsion systems).
 
First of all, it is the FIRST river cruise passenger vessel of the Marine Engineering Bureau project PV300 "Mustay Karim" for 329 passengers built for 60 years in Russia. Probably no less grandiose event than the delivery of the nuclear-powered icebreaker LC-60 "Arktika", although it may have been less noticeable. In any case the shipyard Krasnoe Sormovo has proved that not only foreign shipyards are able to build cruise passenger vessels. "Mustay Karim" turned out, from the point of view of the decisions made initially, quite well.
 
Cruise vessel "Peter the Great" of PV300VD project for 310 passengers is still under construction at "Lotos" shipyard, the cousin of "Mustay Karim".
 
Secondly, the sea cargo-passenger vessel "Admiral Nevelskoy" with 146 cabin passengers for Sakhalin and Kuril Islands, designed by the Marine Engineering Bureau PV22, was commissioned. It is interesting to note that such sea passenger vessels, as well as river cruise ones, have not been built at domestic shipyards for almost 30 years. The last was small "Hypanis" built in 1992 by Khabarovsk shipyard for 36 passengers, and before that there was a break since 1963 (series "Kirgistan" by Northern Shipyard). The second vessel in the series will be delivered in 2021.
 
Third, serious interest in "green" vessels with a minimal carbon footprint. Five hybrid diesel-electric vessels with "batteries" for a one-day cruise with a passenger capacity of 200 people were laid down and are being built at once.
 
The A.M. Gorky Zelenodolsk shipyard has handed over the first in Russia liquefied natural gas-powered passenger pleasure craft "Chaika" for 176 passengers.
 
The first EcoVolt electric catamaran designed by "Scientific and Production Cluster of Morsvyazavtomatika" for 86 people was launched. "Vodokhod" company signed a contract for the delivery of five high-speed catamarans Ecocruiser with passenger capacity up to 120 passengers, which will go from the Palace embankment of St. Petersburg to Peterhof, i.e. will replace traditional "Meteors". A total of 15 such vessels are expected to be ordered in 2021, including nine Ecobuses for Moscow.
 
"Ushakov Shipyards" from Kaliningrad handed over an innovative floating dacha (houseboat), completely on electric propulsion.
 
Fourthly, R.E. Alekseev Central Design Bureau has built five Valday 45P project 23180 vessels with passenger capacity of 45 people and two more such vessels are under construction (a total of 10 vessels since 2018). Two Meteor 120Ps are under construction (4 in total). Three offshore SPK "Kometa-120M" were built.
 
The Zelenodolsk shipyard has started building two Meteors-2020s, as designed by the SITECH design bureau.
 
Nizhny Novgorod company ""Aerotechnology"" is testing an innovative hydrofoil vessel of the project A92 for 24 passengers. For the first time lifting wings of intersecting surfaces according to the "Duck" scheme are used.
 
Fifthly, Sredne-Nevskij shipyard started the building of cabin passenger vessel for Krasnoyarsk - Dudinka line "Viktor Astafjev" and its systro-hip according to the project A45-90.2 by Design Bureau "Agat Design". The plant has also mastered composite passenger catamarans of "Grifon" type.
 
Sixth, in Nizhny Novgorod, "GAMA"" company is completing the construction of an innovative wheeled small river cruise vessel "Golden Ring" of PKS-180 project for 180 passengers, which was relocated in 2020 from "Lotos" plant, where one more vessel of this project is being built.
 
Seventh, the lead passenger automobile-railway ferry icebreaker for Vanino - Kholmsk line of CNF11CPD project of Marine Engineering Bureau "Alexander Deyev" has arrived to the final construction site in Vladivostok. The second one is still under construction at the Amursky Shipyard.
 
The lead cargo-passenger vessel of PV24 project for operation between ports and port points of Kamchatka and Commander Islands "Anatoly Cherneev" continues to be built in Navashino. The vessel is designed to carry 36 passengers in cabins, general cargoes, containers (including refrigerated ones), is equipped with a cargo crane with the ability to perform cargo operations on an unequipped shore.
 
A total of six new cargo-passenger vessels are being built for the communications of the Far East.
 
Eighth, hovercraft construction continues (Aerokhod, Slavir companies, vessels of "Neptun-23" type under construction in Podporozhye, a new hovercraft with 50 seats at Khabarovsk shipyard, laid under Almazovsky project and preparing to be delivered).
 
Altogether during XXI century about 220 passenger vessels, including 115 pleasure boats, 6 cruise vessels, about 40 local lines, about 40 self-propelled and non-self-propelled cargo-passenger ferries were built in river fleet alone. Only for northern regions about 30 passenger vessels and 30 ferries were built, as well as about 20 roll-on barges with ramps, which are often used for organizing river crossings.
 
Thus, all the necessary types of passenger vessels have been mastered by the domestic factories.
 
Need for passenger vessels for regular transportation
 
Annually, about 13-14 million passengers, including about 3-4 million people on excursion voyages, are transported on the inland waterways of Russia.
 
The average age of the 700 passenger vessels of all types operating on local lines is 47.8 years as of July 2020, according to the RRR.
 
75% of the entire passenger fleet for local and suburban lines are "Moskva", "Moskvich", "OM", "Moskovsky" and "MO" type vessels. These vessels were created long ago, morally and physically obsolete.
 
Vessels of P-51, P51E, P-51EK, P-51EA projects (the project was developed in 1965) of "Moscow" type are in operation most of all - 217 vessels with average age of 38 years. Classical vessel for excursion transportation of passengers (from 225 to 243 people depending on the project). There are also quite a lot of vessels of projects 544, 544Sh, 544P of "Moskvich" type - 131 vessels with average age of 64.4 years.
 
In general, the situation is characterized by an acute need in the development of local and interregional passenger transportation, which is primarily connected with the solution of the problem of their economic efficiency. The operation of the passenger fleet is carried out either on the routes subsidized by local budgets (social transportation) or for tourist purposes (St. Petersburg, Moscow, Seliger, Valdai, Ilmen, etc.).
 
The size of the required subsidies (for social transport) is the greater, the less adapted the ships are to the conditions of operation.
 
According to experts, the actual passenger traffic by river transport can reach 20 million people.
 
Senior researcher, Ph.D. Alexander Egorov analyzed the existing local lines, determined the actual and projected passenger traffic and identified the basic types of new vessels to ensure this passenger traffic with a minimum cost per passenger-kilometer. The development of local passenger transportation requires a new, modern, attractive fleet.
 
According to the results of such analysis, water transport in Russia requires about 110 passenger vessels of local lines and 40 cargo-passenger ferries.
 
This assessment of the number and characteristics of promising ships makes it possible to determine the need for appropriate equipment for them and "launch" the real localization.
 

Need of cruise vessels
 
As for cruise passenger vessels, the need for new shipbuilding is objectively determined by the reduction of total passenger capacity. And this phenomenon is also absolutely objective and is connected not only with the fleet aging, but also with the reduction of passengers on each individual vessel due to the ongoing work on improving comfort (fewer cabins, but more space).
 
Disposal of the "old" series of river cruise passenger vessels is not only going on, but is going at an increasing pace. It peaked in 2011-2018, and the process continues now. By February 2019, out of 254 Soviet-built river cruise passenger vessels, 98 (38.6%) were decommissioned. In service - formally 124 vessels (48.8%) with an average age of 45.2 years, of which 4 are foreign-flagged. By 2025, there will be about 87 RCPS in service, including new ones, and about 53 by 2030.
 
As a result, we now have a total of 24600 passenger seats, we expect 18700 in 2025, and 11600 in 2030. If the current volume of cruise passengers is maintained, we will need a corresponding number of new cruise vessels. Here, too, we need to see real market trends. That is, we need PV500, as the most cost-effective, and PV300, and PV180, and PCC.
 
It is necessary to remember that cruise fleet offered for building now is not only vessels which are under construction (PV300VD, PV300), but the whole "line" of vessels - from PV500 for line Moscow - St.Petersburg - Astrakhan for 500 passengers and up to vessels (based on "wheelers" and PV09) for 100-150 passengers, which will be able to operate on the new routes (for example, St.Petersburg - Veliky Novgorod, Moscow - Veliky Novgorod, "Golden Ring", river Oka, Moscow, St.Petersburg - Solovki, Ladoga - St.Petersburg - Saimaa). Let's hope that very soon many water tourists will be able to see not only Valaam and Mandrogi, but also Old Ladoga, Konstantinovo, Veliky Novgorod.
 
In order to preserve the concept of "river cruise", and not only for foreign tourists, it is recommended in the medium and long term to build new passenger ships, which would most fully meet the needs of the market. These could be cruise passenger ships for both classic river routes in the European part of the country (PV300, PV500VB, PV09, PKS-180, etc) and mixed sea-going ships for work in coastal seas and river routes, including the Yenisei, Lena, Ob and Amur (PV300VD, PV11, etc).